It’s Not Over ‘Til The Big Dog Barks
Indie publishing is still growing and it seems that established publishing is at a standstill.
Mike Shatzkin’s column of August 5 may be the one in which we someday remember hearing a new sermon, the beginning of the endgame.
But Shatzkin is not delivering a benediction yet:
This is not a death-knell for anybody. This is a changing world for everybody.
His essay is The publishing world is changing, but there is one big dog that has not yet barked.
True, that headline sounds like bad Dylan. But this write is one of Shatzkin’s best, replete with even-handed accommodation. It’s an important and different homily. Take this line now and just hold it in your mind. We’ll come back to it more than once: “Publishers might have boxed themselves in with their return to Agency pricing.”
For now, note Shatzkin writing:
Hugh Howey told me this was happening in a private exchange three months ago. I didn’t believe him. I do now.
Told him what was happening?
We’re hearing widespread but totally unofficial reports that big publisher ebook sales are dropping noticeably when their new higher Agency prices are activated.
‘To Keep Ebook Prices Artificially High’
The author and commentator Kristine Kathryn Rusch walks us through her surprise at finding a long-awaited new hardcover at Amazon selling for less than the ebook price on its release date.
In Business Musings: Price Wars and Victims, she writes about pre-ordering Sara Paretsky’s Brush Back, and by the time the release date had arrived, “the Kindle edition was $13.99 and the hardcover was $13.”
Rusch asserts that new-Agency terms create a condition in which publishers’ higher ebook pricing will diminish the level of royalty percentages they get from Amazon on those ebooks. And so she writes:
Agency pricing has returned to ebooks, which means that publishers are setting their own ebook prices and the retailers, like Amazon, are not discounting…Traditional publishers are deliberately receiving a lower percentage royalty to keep ebook prices artificially high.
She does some extensive math to conclude that it’s authors taking it in the neck:
The problem is that in this price war, the publishers and Amazon are still making an okay profit on each book sold. The people who are getting squeezed are the ones who get no vote in this: the traditionally published writer.
If accurate, that might be what causes, one day, the “big dog to bark,” Shatzkin’s term for a major author ankling his or her publisher and going flat-out indie.
This, as Rusch formulates it, is the new Agency battle between Amazon and the publishers. As publishers pin their ebook prices Agency-high, Amazon discounts their print editions, basically right out from under them, ensuring that authors’ royalty payments suffer either way.
Rusch, like me and some others, recognizes Shatzkin’s essay as “a rather surprising blog”:
For the very first time, Shatzkin is admitting that the industry might be in trouble due to its own behavior.
I can’t go along with Rusch’s assertion that Shatzkin has never called publishers on creating trouble for themselves. For example, he continues to criticize with great zest the industry’s missed chances to position its authors with effective online marketing techniques. It’s almost become his Jack Benny theme song and I’m expecting the violin to come out any time now.
But Rusch’s work here is compelling and I commend her full essay to you, along with a long round of comments about assumptions in her figures.
Here is the line in which you read Shatzkin at his most “surprising,” as she puts it, on the subject of Agency (and we’ll return to it yet again in a bit after finishing with Rusch): “Publishers might have boxed themselves in with their return to Agency pricing.”
After recognizing Shatzkin’s column as “the first glimmer of hope I’ve seen for traditional publishers,” Rusch goes on to write:
I’m different from some of my indie writer friends: I don’t want traditional publishing to wither and die. I like having the option to publish books on my own, through a small company, or through a larger one. I like being a hybrid writer…[But] traditionally published writers, stop repeating the party line. The problem isn’t Amazon. The problem is that your traditional publishing company is still fighting with Amazon for dominance over the marketplace.
Can things change?
I’m hoping that this week’s Shatzkin article shows that publishers are beginning to realize how stupid their ebook policies are. But I’m an optimist.
‘Publishers Might Have Boxed Themselves In’
Shatzkin’s message, as Rusch points out, is not the party line.
What appears to be happening, writes Shatzkin, is that higher Agency pricing by publishers may be placing the majors’ ebooks right out of the market for many potential buyers. And at a bad time:
Recent data seem to show that, for the publishers, the growth in the retail ebook market has slowed down or stopped (at least for the moment), while Amazon’s ebook sales apparently continue to grow. The share of the market controlled by the publishing establishment — the Big Five publishers and others — is starting to be slowly eroded. This does not yet suggest that an author’s best bet is to go out on his/her own and we may be a very long way from that. But it does suggest that life may get increasingly difficult for publishers.
Something for everybody, right? The gatekeeper-haters will be giddy about “life may get increasingly difficult for publishers.” But note that Shatzkin hasn’t cued up the theme from Exodus outside the front doors of the Big Five. “We may be a long way from that.”
Shatzkin looks at the news last week of Hachette’s ebook sales dropping faster than their other numbers.
And this week, we have Michael Cader at Publishers Lunch on Simon & Schuster (S&S) where CEO Carolyn Reidy tells him:
“We consider ourselves more flat” than down after leaving aside last year’s big releases this time, “and we hope to end the year up a bit.” …Reidy noted, “Obviously our goal is to grow revenues, but there are so many factors to it. Not just the switch from physical to ebooks, but the pricing on ebooks, and the changes in how ebooks are sold; all those things factor in.”
Cader tells us that S&S ebook sales were 20.1 percent in the second quarter, as opposed to 22.3 percent at the same time last year. Reidy denies that this has anything to do with the publisher’s newly negotiated Amazon contract for ebook sales. This is the Agency question, manifested on many sales pages by that famous note from Amazon: “This price set by the publisher.”
Asked whether their new ebook terms have weighed on those sales, Reidy replied, “What we do know is it hasn’t. We’ve done a lot of studies of this and our unit sales are absolutely holding. So we’re very pleased with the new arrangement, and the results of it. There can be effects from pricing changes, but now the pricing changes we’re doing ourselves.”
We haven’t heard from Shatzkin yet on the S&S numbers, but the lower Hachette figures bring him to an observation that the S&S stats may seem to reinforce:
We’re also seeing and hearing that [here’s the line again:] publishers might have boxed themselves in with their return to Agency pricing. When publishers first “raised prices” by instituting Agency pricing for ebooks in 2010, they saw no reduction in ebook sales, which continued to grow. Michael Cader’s analysis…was that publishers may have misread the real impact of price increases because they raised them in a growing market. The number of ebook readers was increasing every day, so those who were put off by the high prices were outnumbered by the new entrants who just wanted to read their books digitally on their shiny new devices.
Get what he’s saying? At a time when the ebook adoption growth rate was high and fast, price points were less important than those sheer numbers that made so many boats float. That’s a cogent observation from Cader. Now that all our dinghies are lying lower in the water, “the anecdotal reports I’m getting,” Shatzkin writes, “suggest that the price increases aren’t being so easily swallowed in the current round of Agency pricing.”
That’s just what Rusch, independently, has described. And I’m getting it, too. A reader has tweeted me about an ebook edition of a new novel priced at $16.99, well above the hardcover price.
More news of Stateside ebook sales declines arrive from Jim Milliot at Publishers Weekly:
Sales in the adult book segment rose 2.3% in April, over April 2014, according to figures released by the AAP [Association of American Publishers]. The increase was led by double-digit gains in downloaded audio and hardcover; these gains helped offset a 7.0% decline in ebook sales.
In children’s ebooks, the publishers’ association numbers get considerably worse. Milliot again:
April sales in the children’s/young adult category fell 12.6% with ebook sales plunging 51.6% in the month and hardcover sales off 12.1%.
Are these signals of a systemic issue? Impossible to say at this point, but they’re worth watching closely.
There’s more: Read the full story at Thought Catalog
By Porter Anderson
Writing on the Ether: Why That Ebook May Cost More Than The Hardcover
Originally published by Thought Catalog at www.ThoughtCatalog.com